As I mentioned last week, there have been a lot of cosmetic changes in Kenya since I was last here 8 months ago. All changes have been driven by the country's new national leadership. The other day I rode downtown in a matatu--a VW bus run by freelance drivers: matatus help fill the gaps in the public transit system.
Last summer, matatus were as they had been since the 80s: crowded with twenty people, screaming around blind curves, with one or two men always hanging onto the side when there was no more room inside. Every week there would be a front page story: TRIPLE DECAPITATION IN MATATU-ON MATATU HEAD ON COLLISION; A DOZEN DEAD TOTAL.
But on Sunday, I got into a matatu with a freshly painted route number on its side, and I sat next to guys with seat belts on. One guy even got tisked for forgetting to put his on. Once there were ten people in the back, we stopped picking people up.
There is an honest-to-Jeebus growth in citizen spirit in Kenya: people have been dealing with crime and corruption for two decades, and the great majority of the society is giving civic responsibility another go. In the government, progressive politicians are trying to bring some sunlight onto the dirty deals of the past.
So I spent the weekend making mental comparisons to Giuliani's NYC: When Rudy became mayor in the 90s, and focused energy on graffiti and broken windows, more than a few people rolled their eyes: "We've got crack barons ruling city blocks and you're worrying about kids painting messages in bubble script!" A decade later, most experts traced much New York's turnaround to the law-and-order vibe that came from cracking down on petty crime.
So I looked at how Nairobi has changed in less than a year, and couldn't help thinking: the populace has made a psychological shift. Let the reconstruction begin.
Or not.
Nairobi has two problems NYC didn't: the schmucks who ruined the country in the 80s and the 90s--not crack lords, but people of actual political power--are still around. Second, the city has an infrastructure that hasn't been tended to for a quarter of a century.
Put those two together, and you get last night's suspected arson in downtime Nairobi, which has gutted city hall. From the East African Standard:
The huge flames lit the city sky as sections of the roof started caving in. One of the City Council guards who was on duty and only identified as Mr Ondiek had to trek to Central Police to report the fire because the council telephones have been disconnected for unpaid bills...
There was confusion and anxiety as several fire engines ran out of water. No working hydrants could be found near city hall to refill the fire engines causing them to travel long distances in search of water. During this breaks, the fire spread unabated.
If this is arson--as officials on the radio say they suspect--it's old school Kenyan politics. Someone's investigating you? Burn down the building where the evidence is. And the further fire spreads, the better: more destruction means more intimidation, and a whole torched block makes pinpointing the original target that much more difficult.
Fixing potholes is necessary work, as is standardizing the transit industry. But rebuilding the city's plumbing and its telecom systems are high investment work that's going to take a long time and barrels of donor cash. And moving against Kenya's old parasites--at least to the point where they aren't actively trying to wreck the society--will take a decade of political determination.
Though ff any populace in East Africa is likely to maintain the necessary pressure, it's Kenya. They remain the best educated, most literate, most impatient for Change, already.
